Medicaid Long-Term Care Demand Projections—New Analysis of Town-by-Town Data


Medicaid Long-Term Care Demand Projections—New Analysis of Town-by-Town Data 

To help provide local context for how the need for long-term services and support (LTSS) is shifting over time, and to help plan for the future, the Department of Social Services (DSS) has partnered with Mercer Human Services Consulting to update a previous set of town-level data (first issued in 2012 and updated every 2 – 3 years), focusing on current and projected supply and demand for LTSS. 

The data encompass nursing home services, community-based services and associated workforce.  This update is intended to help enable policymakers, municipal officials, service providers, advocates and families to understand how changes in public demand, as well as strategies implemented by the state, will affect how LTSS will be provided and utilized. 

The 2021 Medicaid Long-Term Care Demand Projections with COVID 19 Addendum include updated actual demand through 2018 cost reports as the basis for anticipating future demand and estimates for building or reducing supply related to community services or nursing home service. A subsection in the COVID-19 Addendum of the report (section 12), titled “Interpreting Results,” is intended to help readers understand the applicability of COVID 19 on the projections.

**Please scroll down for the Report and Resources**

Among the findings are:

  • DSS Medicaid initiatives, including Money Follows the Person and Community First Choice, have significantly increased the proportion of Medicaid-funded home- and community-based services in Connecticut’s LTSS system.
  • Governor Lamont has proposed, and the legislature has adopted, a number of new initiatives that are also anticipated to support increased use of home- and community-based services.
  • By incorporating these and other initiatives into modeling going forward, Mercer projects that Connecticut will increase the utilization of home care in Medicaid from the 2017 level of 67.6% to 82.3% by 2040.
  • This will mean a continued trend of less need for nursing home beds.  
  • To facilitate use of the report and inform both state and town level planning, a new Qlik Dashboard was created in 2021 and is available for public use. 
  • Prior to COVID 19 nursing home care was expected to be reduced by nearly 6,000 beds over the period from 2017 to 2040. 
  • COVID 19 has short and long-term impacts on utilization of community and nursing home demand.   
  • Current demand levels for nursing home services have dropped significantly as a result of COVID 19.  Prior to COVID 19, the State of Connecticut did not anticipate this shift to community in lieu of nursing home care until 2028 or 2029. 
  • Noting many of the effects of the pandemic are persistent, the Qlik Dashboard may be used with the understanding the projected figures will likely continue to occur seven to eight years earlier than originally anticipated. 
  • Accordingly, those using the Qlik Dashboard for planning purposes should use the supply and demand projections related to 2028 or 2029. 

Report & Resources