Research, Analysis & Evaluation

Existing 2007 Grant Projects & Timelines:

The 2008 Connecticut Recidivism Study & Annual Report:
Theme:  Performance measurement & Analyses utilizing a State’s criminal history records.
Status:  Pending final knowledge transfer and full methodology disclosures.

This study has been completed with data collection occurring during the autumn of 2007 and data analysis done during the winter. However we are still awaiting the delivery of the final syntax file and knowledge transfer on how to recreate all the data variables used as the basis for the analysis and other methods used to calculate time served and other components of the study. The publication of the annual report has been completed and distributed to the Governor’s Office and the legislature, and has been posted to the State Office of Policy and Management’s web site.  Several presentations of the findings and conclusions from this study are planned, and the first one is scheduled for April 10, 2008 to members of the Criminal Justice Policy Advisory Commission. 

The 2008 Connecticut Prison Population Projection Study & Annual Report:
Theme:  Performance measurement.
Status:  Completed.

This study and the Annual Report have been completed and the report has been distributed to the Governor’s Office and the legislature, and has been posted to the State Office of Policy and Management’s web site.  Several presentations of the findings and conclusions from this study are planned, and the first one is scheduled for April 10, 2008 to members of the Criminal Justice Policy Advisory Commission.

The 2008 Deaths in Police Custody Reporting:
Theme:  Performance measurement.
Status:  Ongoing.

The Connecticut Statistical Analysis Center (CT SAC) collects and reports statewide statistics on deaths in police custody to BJS and Connecticut Office of Policy and Management on a quarterly basis.  Connecticut is current with the filing of these reports.

Proposed 2008 Grant Projects & Timelines:

SJS Program Theme: (1) Deaths in Police Custody Reporting.

Collect and analyze statewide statistics on deaths occurring in the process of arrest or in pursuit of arrest in Connecticut, and report at least the minimum data set on a quarterly basis to BJS and Connecticut Office of Policy and Management. 

Timeline:  Data will be collected and reported quarterly to BJS and OPM.  This project is on-going.

SJS Program Theme: (5) Performance Measurement & (6) Analyses utilizing Connecticut’s criminal history records. 

The CT SAC will provide ongoing technical support, OPM staff training and knowledge transfer and full methodology disclosures on two 2009 legislatively mandated annual studies (approximately 24 hours in total):

(a) 2009 Annual Recidivism Study: a report that compiles, analyzes and presents annual statistics for (1) recidivism of offenders released from prison, (2) recidivism of offenders on probation, and (3) recidivism of offenders participating in programs designed to reduce prison overcrowding, improve rehabilitation efforts and enhance reentry strategies for offenders released from prison and improve the State’s ability to analyze data in support of public policy issues relative to prison and jail overcrowding issues in Connecticut. 

(b) 2009 Annual Prison Population Projection Study: a report that presents population projections for the correctional system for planning purposes in order to improve the State’s ability to analyze data in support of public policy issues related to prison and jail overcrowding issues in Connecticut.

(a) 2009 Recidivism Study: Prison population overcrowding is a major priority for the State of Connecticut.  In 2005, the Connecticut General Assembly legislatively mandated a yearly recidivism study as one way to monitor potential causes of the prison population growth.  The initial recidivism study of released prisoners in 2000 was conducted by the CTSAC.  In 2007, staff from the CTSAC worked collaboratively with the OPM Criminal Justice Policy and Planning Division's Research Unit staff to develop a new methodology for this annual report based on limitations with the inaugural report.  For the 2008 SAC grant, the CTSAC will continue to train OPM/CJPPD Research Unit staff and provide knowledge transfer and improve the methodology of this study.

Connecticut’s concerns about prison overcrowding have taken on even more significance in the aftermath of a home invasion that resulted in the murder of three members of a Cheshire Connecticut family in July 2007.  Both of the men arrested for these crimes were on parole.  Consequently, the Governor placed a temporary ban on parole for all offenders with a history of violence and the incarcerated population went from 18,875 in August to an all time high of 19,828 in November 2007.   

Project design & Methodology:  First, the Connecticut Department of Correction will provide data on inmates released in 2005.  The sample will be stratified to include inmates released at the end of their sentence, released on parole, released on probation, and released to a Department of Correction community-based program.  This data will be collected from the Department of Correction’s mainframe database and will include demographics, risk and need scores (as assigned by the Department of Correction), and prison entry and discharge histories.  Second, court data will be collected from the Connecticut Judicial Branch’s Criminal Record/Motor Vehicle Systems (CRMVS).  This data will include current offense information and prior court appearances.  Third, criminal history data will be collected from the Connecticut Department of Public Safety’s criminal history database.  This database is the most comprehensive in the state and the only database that includes arrest and conviction history.

Analysis:  There will be three primary analyses in this study.  First, we will provide an overall description of who was released from prison in 2005 and for what reasons.  The descriptive analysis will focus on demographics, offense types, types of release, and risk and need scores.  Second, a survival analysis will be utilized in assessing characteristics predicting which inmates will be rearrested, reconvicted, and re-incarcerated (for both a new offense and for technical violations) as well as the length of time prior to their re-arrest.  Third, we will assess factors that may predict re-incarceration and length of new prison sentence.

Participation by Other State Agencies:  In 2006, the CTSAC and the OPM/CJPPD's Research Unit initially co-facilitated the creation of a Forecast Research Workgroup comprised of representatives from the CTSAC, OPM/CJPPD Research Unit, the Connecticut Department of Correction, the Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles, the Connecticut Judicial Branch- Court Operations, the Connecticut Court Support Services Division (this agency oversees pre-trial services, probation, and community-based programs), and the Connecticut Division of Public Safety’s Crime Analysis Unit.  The Forecast Research Workgroup is chaired by OPM and has grown to include the three branches of governement and other agency representatives.  This workgroup will continue to be significantly involved in all phases of these projects under the SAC Grant. 

Timeline for Recidivism Study:  Data collection for the 2009 Recidivism Study will be done during July 2008.  Data analysis will begin no later than August 2008 and a draft report will be prepared and submitted to OPM by November 1, 2008.  The final report is due to the Connecticut General Assembly no later than February 15, 2009.

(b) 2009 Prison Population Projection Study: As stated above, the prison population overcrowding is a major priority for the State of Connecticut.  In 2005, the Connecticut General Assembly legislatively mandated a yearly prison forecasting study as one way to monitor changes in the prison population as well as to identify potential causes of prison population growth and to propose strategies to address overcrowding. 

The CTSAC conducted the initial prison population forecasting study in 2006 and worked collaboratively with staff from OPM/CJPPD's Research Unit to conduct this study again in 2007.   For the 2008 SAC grant, the CTSAC will continue to provide technical support, train OPM/CJPPD Research Unit staff and provide knowledge transfer to conduct the 2009 Prison Population Projection Study, and will be responsible for the development of an input/output model/methodology in order to better project prison population to improve criminal justice planning.

Methodology: see input/output project below.

Timeline for Prison Population Projection Study: Most of the data that will be used for the 2009 Prison Population Projection Study and the input/output model project is already being collected monthly by the OPM/CJPPD Research Unit staff and utilized in the OPM Correctional Population Indicators Monthly Report.  This data however is not complete and needs to be fine tuned.  Other data sets required will be identified by September 2008 and will be collected from DOC and BOPP no later than October 2008.  Data analysis will begin no later than November 2008 and a draft report will be prepared and submitted to OPM by December 1, 2008.  The final report is due to the Connecticut General Assembly no later than February 15, 2009.

(c) Input/Output Model: Investigate, develop, train OPM staff and provide knowledge transfer and full methodology disclosures for a new Prison Population Projection Input/Output Model methodology to enhance and improve the State’s ability to analyze data in support of public policy issues related to prison and jail overcrowding issues in Connecticut.  (Study referenced in 1(b) above; approximately 585 hours in total).

Participation by Other State Agencies:  In 2006, the CTSAC and the OPM/CJPPD's Research Unit initially co-facilitated the creation of a Forecast Research Workgroup comprised of representatives from the CTSAC, OPM/CJPPD Research Unit, the Connecticut Department of Correction, the Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles, the Connecticut Judicial Branch- Court Operations, the Connecticut Court Support Services Division (this agency oversees pre-trial services, probation, and community-based programs), and the Connecticut Division of Public Safety’s Crime Analysis Unit.  The Forecast Research Workgroup is chaired by OPM and has grown to include the three branches of governement and other agency representatives.  This workgroup will continue to be significantly involved in all phases of these projects under the SAC Grant. 

Timeline for Input/Output Model Development: Some data collection for this project is already being done monthly as part of the OPM Current Correctional Population Indicators Report and will be on-going to build the database to be used with the input/output model.  The Input/Output Model Design will be outlined and submitted to OPM no later than September 2008.  A fully developed Input/Output Model/Methodology will be submitted to OPM in preparation for doing the prison population projection no later than November 1, 2008. 

SJS Program Theme: (11) Evaluation of Prisoner Reentry Initiatives and Programs.

Conduct evaluation/outcome study of a Department of Correction (DOC) Re-entry Program such as halfway houses to identify performance measures and to assess progress in addressing public safety and administration of justice goals related to these parole-based community supervision programs (approximately 675 hours in total).

Participation by Other State Agencies:  In 2006, the CTSAC and the OPM/CJPPD's Research Unit initially co-facilitated the creation of a Forecast Research Workgroup comprised of representatives from the CTSAC, OPM/CJPPD Research Unit, the Connecticut Department of Correction, the Connecticut Board of Pardons and Paroles, the Connecticut Judicial Branch- Court Operations, the Connecticut Court Support Services Division (this agency oversees pre-trial services, probation, and community-based programs), and the Connecticut Division of Public Safety’s Crime Analysis Unit.  The Forecast Research Workgroup is chaired by OPM and has grown to include the three branches of governement and other agency representatives.  This workgroup will continue to be significantly involved in all phases of these projects under the SAC Grant. 

Timeline for Evaluation/Outcome Study of Prisoner Reentry Program:  A draft work plan outlining the evaluation study and the outcome measures to be used will be submitted to OPM within 45 days after grant award; progress reports will be submitted with each cash request or progress reports will be submitted at least quarterly; and a near final draft report with evaluation/outcome findings will be submitted to OPM no later than January 2009.

SJS Program Theme: (12) Other theme or topics identified by the Governor, CT SAC, State Office of Policy and Management or other criminal justice policy officials (approximately 50 hours in total).

Collecting, analyzing, and publishing criminal justice data.  Other ad hoc and ancillary statistical analyses & presentations on the Connecticut criminal justice system as required by legislature, Governor’s Office and various other bodies such as the Connecticut Sentencing Task Force/Commission.

Timeline for Ad hoc/Ancillary analyses and presentations: Timeline for these analyses and presentations is on-going throughout the year and as needed.

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