STATUS OF THE STATE EOC: ENHANCED MONITORING BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE NW HILLS AT THIS TIME…RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TODAY…FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE AND ALL OF NEW ENGLAND FOR TODAY…
STATUS OF THE STATE EOC: ENHANCED MONITORING
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE NW HILLS AT THIS TIME…RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES TODAY…FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE AND ALL OF NEW ENGLAND FOR TODAY…
At 6:45 AM radar showed a band of numerous showers and thunderstorms with a few embedded tornadoes tracking thru New Jersey and eastern New York State. This band of storms will move into the state during the next 60 minutes. At this time, the NWS is forecasting the heaviest rainfall to occur today across central Northern CT and central Southern MA with 4” to 6”+ of rainfall possible (see map to the right). However, the actual axis of heaviest rainfall will depend on where the bands of showers and thunderstorms actually move during the day today. Here’s the latest forecast based on a blend of the HRRR and NAMHRES models:
This Morning: The band of showers and thunderstorms over New York and New Jersey is forecast to cross our area between 8:00 AM and Noon. Rainfall rates within this band of storms may exceed 1” – 2” per hour at times causing moderate urban and small stream flooding. In addition, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Connecticut into the Slight Risk Category for severe thunderstorms today. The SPC has also increased the risk for tornadoes to 5% for our area. A few brief tornadoes are possible as the band of thunderstorms crosses Connecticut this morning. With very wet soils, any wind gusts over 50 mph have the potential to bring down trees.
This Afternoon: There may be a lull in activity for a few hours early this afternoon. A second band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact central and eastern CT from mid afternoon thru this evening. This band of showers and thunderstorms also has the potential for torrential downpours, urban and small stream flooding and brief tornadoes. The activity is expected to taper off to showers this evening.
Towns are advised to closely monitor radars today and to report any significant flooding or wind damage to their DEMHS Regional Offices as time permits. DESPP / DEMHS will continue to closely monitor the severe weather and heavy rainfall threat.