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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CONNECTICUT FRIDAY MORNING…EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE ENTIRE STATE AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST….

Posted 7/7/2021

 EXWU0038- TSELSA1- Full Weather Report

 

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CONNECTICUT FRIDAY MORNING…EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE ENTIRE STATE AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST….

 

Towns are encouraged to review your local Emergency Operations Plans…

 

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 2:00 PM Tropical Storm (T.S.) Elsa was located at Lat. 30.3 North Long. 83.5 West or approximately 105 miles west of Jacksonville, Florida.  Elsa is moving to the north at 14 MPH.  T.S. Elsa has maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. 

 

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to turn gradually to the northeast during the next 24 hours as the storm weakens further and crosses Georgia and the Carolina’s tonight and Thursday.

Elsa is then forecast to cross the warm Chesapeake bay Thursday night which is forecast to allow the storm to get better organized and strengthen back up into a tropical storm.  Elsa is forecast to move off the New Jersey coast at daybreak on Friday and cross Long Island between 8:00 – 9:00 AM.  Elsa is then forecast to make landfall near Old Saybrook at 10:00 AM Friday morning as a weak tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 MPH and gusts to 55 MPH. 

 

Here in Connecticut winds are currently forecast to begin increasing along the coast at daybreak on Friday.  The winds are expected to peak during mid-morning in southeastern Connecticut (see red bars on graph) and be sustained at 35 – 40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH at times.  Northeast winds of 20 – 30 MPH are expected inland and north of the storm track.  Heavy rainfall (see green bars) associated with Elsa will likely cause minor to moderate urban flooding Friday morning.  Total rainfall is forecast to range from 3” – 5” from Thursday afternoon thru early Friday afternoon.  The strong winds combined with wet soils may cause widespread power outages in southeastern CT and more scattered power outages across the rest of the state. These impacts are based on the current NHC forecast. 

 

We are still 44 hours from landfall and some additional changes in the track forecast and impacts are likely to occur. 

 

The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor the track of T.S. Elsa.  The next update on Elsa will be sent out Thursday morning at 11:30 AM.