A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT…HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE NWS FOR THE ENTIRE STATE…
A very strong cold front is forecast to move across New England after daybreak tomorrow morning. A tight pressure gradient and band of very heavy rain will precede the cold front. The moderately deep snowpack over our area is still expected to interact with this cold front in two ways. The melting snow combined with the heavy rainfall is expected to cause minor to moderate urban and stream flooding Friday morning. Larger rivers are expected to rise to minor flood levels over the weekend. The snowpack, however, may keep the strongest winds from reaching down into the valleys by providing a barrier of colder air near the surface. The following forecast is based on the HRRR and NAMHRES models:
This Afternoon: Becoming cloudy with increasing south winds gusting to 25 – 35 MPH at times by late afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50’s.
Tonight: Winds from the south are forecast to continue increasing this evening and into the early morning hours after midnight. Winds may gust as high as 65 MPH (red line on graph to the right) at times around dawn especially along the coast, in eastern CT and in the NW hills. Towns should plan for a moderate impact with numerous downed trees and powerlines.
Friday Morning: Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to continue for several hours after daybreak. Additional power outages are expected and the heavy rainfall of 2.0” – 4.0” (green bars on graph) is expected to cause minor to moderate urban and stream flooding if the snowpack melts completely. There will also likely be a lot of basement flooding as a result of the saturated ground and elevated ground water levels. The strong winds and heavy rainfall are forecast to subside down to lighter rain and lower winds gusting to 30 – 40 MPH by 11:00 AM. Urban and small stream flooding should begin to subside by noon.
This Weekend: Flooding on some larger rivers (Housatonic, Farmington and Connecticut) is expected over the weekend. Minor flooding is expected at this time, however the exact flood level forecasts will be updated once the rainfall has ended tomorrow afternoon.
The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor this approaching storm.
Another update will be sent out at 6:00 PM this evening.