TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN, SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX AND ALL OF NEW LONDON COUNTIES…FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE…

EXWU0039 - TSELSA2 Full Weather Report

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN, SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX AND ALL OF NEW LONDON COUNTIES…FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE STATE…

At 11:00 AM Tropical Storm (T.S.) Elsa was located at Lat. 35.0 North Long. 79.7 West or approximately 80 miles southwest of Raleigh, North Carolina.  Elsa is moving to the northeast at 20 MPH.  T.S. Elsa has maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH. 

T.S. Elsa is forecast to move northeast across North Carolina this afternoon and Virginia this evening.  Elsa is then forecast to cross the warm waters of Chesapeake bay tonight which is forecast to allow the storm to get better organized and maintain its tropical storm status.  Elsa is forecast to move off the New Jersey coast around 4:00 AM on Friday morning and cross the tip of Long Island between 9:00 – 10:00 AM.  Elsa is then forecast to make its closest approach near Stonington around 10:00 AM Friday morning as a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50 MPH and gusts to 65 MPH. 

Winds are currently forecast to begin increasing along the coast here in Connecticut at daybreak on Friday.  The winds are expected to peak during the mid-morning in southeastern Connecticut  and be sustained at 30 – 35 MPH with gusts to 40 - 50 MPH at times.  Winds inland are forecast to gust to 20 – 30 MPH at times north of the storm track.  Recent rainfall has saturated the soil in Connecticut and heavy rainfall associated with Elsa will likely cause moderate urban flooding and minor river flooding Friday morning.  Total rainfall is forecast to range from 3” – 5” with locally higher amounts possible from this evening thru early Friday afternoon. 

As with any tropical system there is a slight risk (around 2%) for an isolated tornado. 

The strong winds combined with wet soils may cause a minor to moderate number of power outages in southeastern CT and minor power outages across the rest of the state. These impacts are based on the current NHC forecast.  We are still 23 hours from closest approach and any slight changes in the track forecast would significantly change the impacts for our area.   

The Department of Emergency Services and Public Protection, Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor the progress of T.S. Elsa towards our area. 

Another update will be sent out at 5:30 PM this afternoon.