WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE STATE…FAIRLY LARGE WINTER STORM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY…
WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE STATE…FAIRLY LARGE WINTER STORM EXPECTED ON FRIDAY…
The NWS has issued Winter Storm Watches for most of the state except for the coast. A large low pressure system is forecast to start forming in West Virginia tomorrow evening and move northeast towards New York state. A weak low pressure system is also forecast to form off the North Carolina coast at the same time and move towards Cape Cod. Neither of these low pressure systems is expected to be very strong, however they will both converge to bring a lot of precipitation into New England. Enough cold air is expected to be anchored over our area for the precipitation to start as a 6 – 12 hour period of moderate to heavy snow followed by a change to sleet and rain. The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS, NAM and NWS forecasts:
Thursday Night: Snow is currently forecast to start in Connecticut around midnight, Thursday night and come down moderate to heavy (snowfall rates of 1” – 2” per hour) at times between midnight and 6:00 AM Friday morning. Roads are forecast to quickly become snow covered across the entire state with temperatures in the upper 20’s.
Friday Morning: Moderate to heavy snow is forecast to be falling across most of the state at the start of the rush hour with a moderate to major impact on driving. The snow is expected to change to a mix of sleet and freezing rain along the coast starting at 6:00 AM (see yellow dashed line on map). The mix line is forecast to move north and reach the Hartford area by 8:00 AM and the MA border by 10:00 AM. Temperatures are forecast to reach freezing in the Hartford area by noon.
Friday Afternoon: Light mixed sleet and freezing rain may change to plain rain in southern CT for a few hours. The precipitation is expected to taper off by mid-afternoon and may end as some wet snow by the start of the afternoon rush hour. The impact on the afternoon rush hour is not expected to be as significant. Roads by 3:00 PM are currently expected to be plowed with some slush on shoulders and ramps. Total snowfall at this time is expected to range from 2” – 4” along the coast, 4” – 6” in Southern CT and 6” – 8” in Northern CT. There may be a little more snow in the NW and NE hills.
The exact track and intensity of both low pressure systems will be critical. Any movement of the rain/snow line could significantly impact the snowfall amounts and the timing of the changeover relative to the morning rush hour on Friday.
DESPP/DEMHS will continue to closely monitor this winter storm.