Medicaid Long-Term Care Demand Projections—New Analysis of Town-by-Town Data

Overview

To help provide local context for how the need for long-term services and support (LTSS) is shifting over time, and to help plan for the future, the Department of Social Services (DSS) has partnered with Mercer Human Services Consulting to update a previous set of town-level data (first issued in 2012 and updated in 2014), focusing on current and projected supply and demand for LTSS.

The data encompass nursing home services, community-based services and associated workforce.  This update is intended to help enable policymakers, municipal officials, service providers, advocates and families to understand how changes in public demand, as well as strategies implemented by the state, will affect how LTSS will be provided and utilized.

**Please scroll down for the Report and Resources**

Among the findings are:

  • DSS Medicaid initiatives, including Money Follows the Person, have significantly increased the proportion of Medicaid-funded home- and community-based services in Connecticut’s LTSS system.
  • Governor Lamont has proposed, and the legislature has adopted, a number of new initiatives that are also anticipated to support increased use of home- and community-based services.
  • By incorporating these and other initiatives into modeling going forward, Mercer projects that Connecticut will increase the utilization of home care in Medicaid from the 2017 level of 67.6% to 82.3% by 2040.
  • This will mean a continued trend of less need for nursing home beds.  The demand for nursing home care is expected to be reduced by nearly 6,000 beds over the period from 2017 to 2040.

Report & Resources

Webinars -- The Department of Social Services hosted special webinars about the State of Connecticut Medicaid Long-Term Care Demand Projections on August 7 and 9, 2019.  In partnership with Mercer Human Services Consulting, DSS presented the contents of the report and how the data can be used to support planning efforts at a local level. 

We have posted the webinar content online, and invite visitors to access it by following this link.